Most new technology comes from individuals who set out to learn about science and technology. The quality of U.S. educational institutions is still unparalleled. But the decline in the number of students majoring in science and engineering, and the even bigger decline of students in computer science, is alarming. The percentage of science and engineering students has been dropping for years. According to the National Science Foundation, science and engineering degrees granted in the U.S. have decreased steadily from about 35 percent in the 1960s to just under 32 percent by 2001, the last date for which the NSF has published data.time getting education visas. While I understand the need to be careful about visas for security reasons, making the process long and bureaucratic—or simply reducing the number of students allowed into the U.S.—seems short-sighted. I can’t count how many foreign nationals attended U.S. universities and then went on to start, run, or make major contributions to big tech companies here. Now, foreign nationals will study elsewhere, and when the time comes to build companies, they won’t be doing it in the U.S. Another trend is economic and cyclical. During the dot-com boom, CS students flourished, but during the bust, interest dried up. The HERI data shows a similar trend during the PC boom of the early 1980s. That too faded, but not nearly as much as it has now. In fact, the percentage of freshman CS students is lower than it has been at any time since 1976, when I was a computer science sophomore at Rensselaer.
I’m particularly concerned that recent graduates aren’t choosing computer science because they think that jobs will be outsourced to foreign countries. U.S. companies are indeed outsourcing some lower-level IT jobs. But the hype is larger than the reality. Most of the faculty members I’ve talked with say that their CS and IT graduates are having no trouble getting job offers. In fact, I know many big tech firms that are looking for new people and are having trouble finding the right candidates. Over the long term, if tech companies can’t find U.S. graduates, then they’ll hire more overseas. This trend would exacerbate the outsourcing issue and turn out to be a big problem for the U.S. A recent study from the President’s Information Technology Advisory Committee states: “The global information technology–powered revolution is accelerating, but this nation has not yet fully awakened to the implications.” It argues for a bigger government role, especially in providing an infrastructure for connecting R&D centers and for redirected federal R&D priorities. But that’s only one answer.
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